What’s the State of the Economy Before the Election?

With less than a month before the presidential election, voters continue to rank the economy as their most important issue. 52% say that candidates’ position on it is “extremely important” when deciding for whom to vote. That’s why we’re exploring the state of the economy and how Americans feel about it.

Let’s start with unemployment. The good news is that, as of September 2024, this figure is holding at 4.1%—far lower than the 6.3% rate that faced Joe Biden at the beginning of his presidency. It is also the lowest unemployment rate of any recent election year. Meanwhile, inflation (41% voters rate this indicator as very important) is down to historic norms of 2.6% from a high of 9% in 2022.

Looking at the overall economic picture, gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3% in the second quarter of 2024 after falling into the negatives during the height of the COVID 19 pandemic. GDP is the total value of all goods and services sold in the United States and often used as a stand-in for the health of the economy. Likewise, the stock market has been on a two-year tear. Since 2022, stocks have increased 60% in value—great news for anyone with a 401K.

Despite an ostensibly roaring economy, polling shows that the election remains a statistical tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Economists and social scientists believe this may be due to a “hangover effect” from the pandemic because economic gains have not yet fully sunk in after the hardship Americans faced since 2020. Regardless, we’ll find out on November 5 if voters decide to reward the Vice President for the strong economy.

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